Canadians Choose Carney as PM

By Laurien Rueger

Canada held a federal election on April 28, 2025, in which the Liberal Party of Canada led by Prime Minister Mark Carney won enough seats in Canada’s Parliament to form a minority government. (1) It was not the strong mandate that Carney had hoped for or that pollsters had predicted. Judicial recounts will occur in several ridings but currently, the Liberals hold 169 seats, just three seats short of a majority of 172 seats, or half of the 343-seat Parliament. The Conservative Party of Canada, led by Pierre Poilievre, won 143 seats. (2) The election was characterized by a highly competitive, polarizing Mars-Pluto opposition (at 4° Leo and 3° Aquarius respectively). The result was a tight race between the two major parties with the Liberals winning 43.7% of the popular vote versus 41.3% for the Conservatives. (3)

Indeed, every party leader who suffered losses on election night was targeted by the Mars-Pluto opposition. Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservatives and the Official Opposition in the House of Commons, suffered the most stunning defeat. Mars was conjunct his dramatic Jupiter (at 5° Leo) while Pluto was opposite it. His Conservative Party was 25 points ahead in the polls in January but fell to just under four points behind the Liberals by election day. (4) Worst still, Poilievre lost his own seat in a riding he had held since 2004, but he has vowed to stay on as party leader. (5) Factors that worked against him included the resignation of former Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau who had been his main target, combined with threats of economic warfare and annexation by US President Donald Trump. This caused many Canadians to flee Poilievre and his party, who were perceived as too Trump-like and in too deep with the so-called ‘Maple MAGA’ movement.

New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh was born six months before Poilievre, so his chart shares similarities. His Jupiter (at 6° Leo) was also targeted by the Mars-Pluto opposition. His party dropped from 25 seats in the House of Commons to only seven, which meant it lost its official party status and all the perks that go along with that designation. Like Poilievre, Singh lost his own seat and announced that he will resign as soon as an interim leader can be appointed. (6) Green Party Co-Leader Jonathan Pedneault had the Mars-Pluto opposition square his Sun (at 29° Aries to 0° Taurus, depending on his time of birth). After failing to win a seat in Parliament on his second try, he resigned also. (7) Finally, Maxime Bernier of the far-right People’s Party of Canada, whose Mercury (at 1° Aquarius) was targeted by the Mars-Pluto opposition, also failed to win election. His party’s share of the popular vote dropped from 5% at the last election to only 0.7% and his future as party leader is uncertain. (8) In short, Mars-Pluto lived up to its reputation for ruthlessness. The election turned into a fierce two-way horse race with smaller parties falling by the wayside.

As for the night’s big winner Mark Carney, his natal chart was unscathed by the Mars-Pluto Opposition. The Moon-Uranus-Algol conjunction was upon his natal Ascendant, one of the most sensitive points in the horoscope, associated with our personal identity and life focus. Moon-Uranus can produce emotional shocks but also excitement, and Carney may have experienced a little bit of both on election night when he learned he would continue as prime minister but not with the majority government he had asked Canadians for. Still, this is a man who thrives on crisis and is a skilled negotiator. He can probably make this near-majority Parliament work. The NDP and lone Green member are natural allies and their eight seats will help Carney to make up his majority. Even if the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois conspire to bring down the government as they did last fall, their combined 166 seats are not enough to outweigh the Liberal’s 169 seats, which rise to 176 if the NDP and Green are included, minus a speaker who typically comes from the government side.

Making Parliament work after it re-opens on May 26^th is just one of the many things Carney will have to give his attention to after his new government is sworn in the week of May 12^th. Even before then, he will meet with US President Donald Trump in Washington on May 6^th to discuss trade and security. (12) Carney will have to walk a tightrope between maintaining diplomatic relations with the US administration and showing Canadians that he is standing up for them.

Notes:

1. Canadians give Liberals 4^th mandate as Carney leads party to minority win, CTV News, https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/canadians-give-liberals-4th-mandate-as-carney-leads-party-to-minority-win/
2. Canada Votes 2025, CBC News, https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2025/results/#/
3. Ibid.
4. CBC News Poll Tracker, https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/
5. Poilievre faces uncertain future after losing his own seat and failing to depose the Liberals, CBC News, https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-uncertain-future-1.7521681
6. An emotional Singh steps down with NDP set to lose party status, CBC News, https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/jagmeet-singh-ndp-election-results-1.7520955
7. Jonathan Pedneault resigns as Green Party co-leader after failing to secure seat for 2^nd time, CBC News, https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/jonathan-pedneault-resigns-again-1.7522519
8. With less than 1% of the vote, does the People’s Party of Canada have a future? CBC News, https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/peoples-party-of-canada-ppc-maxime-bernier-election-2025-1.7523653
9. Bloc’s fortunes slip as Liberals make gains in Quebec, CBC News,  https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/bloc-s-fortunes-slip-as-liberals-make-gains-in-quebec-1.7521338
10. Green co-Leader Elizabeth May holds B.C. seat for 5^th term, CBC News, https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/green-party-leader-elizabeth-may-wins-saanich-gulf-islands-1.7521274
11. Green party’s Elizabeth May open to running for House Speaker, joining Carney cabinet, CTV News, https://www.ctvnews.ca/federal-election-2025/article/green-partys-elizabeth-may-open-to-running-for-house-speaker-joining-carney-cabinet/
12. PM Carney to meet with President Trump in Washington on Tuesday, CBC News, https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-trump-meeting-tuesday-1.7524324

Title Image Credit:  Canadian flag image from Wikimedia Commons, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flag-map_of_Canada.png; voting image by OpenClipart-Vectors from Pixabay; combined by editor